2024 Durban July Analysis

The most prestigious horse racing event in Mzansi is happening this Saturday. Race 7—the Durban July—jumps at 16:00, while Race 1 starts at 11:45. Here’s your ultimate guide to this year’s showdown, complete with the latest odds, weights, jockeys, the full draw, and betting tips.

KZN trainers have been on the rise in recent Grade 1 events, offering the best chance in years for a local win. The last time a KZN-trained horse won the July was Spanish Galliard, trained by Dennis Drier and ridden by Robbie Sham, back in 1992.

Last season, Michael Roberts came close with See It Again, finishing a narrow second. This year, the home province has a strong contender with last year’s runner-up, Royal Victory, trained by Nathan Kotzen, who drew pole position.

Three-year-olds have dominated Africa’s premier horse racing event, winning five of the last 14 races. This year’s favourite is the in-form three-year-old, Green With Envy.

I reckon this year’s crop of three-year-olds is not as strong as last year’s. Despite Green With Envy being heavily favoured, there were doubts after the Daily News 2000 victory. I’m leaning towards Purple Pitcher, who won the SA Classic and SA Derby, and is jumping from gate 8 with 53kg on his back. At 20/1, it’s a solid bet for swingers, trifectas, and quartets.

Since this is a handicap race, weights play a crucial role. The best-weighted horse often has the edge over the best horse in the race. Only seven of the last 21 winners have carried more than 55kg. This year’s runner-up, the best horse in the race, will carry the heaviest weight at 60kg.

As Pamodoro’s 2012 victory from gate 20 shows, winners can come from anywhere. Out of the last four winners, gates 12, 18, and 17 produced three of them. In fact, 11 of the previous 16 winners emerged from double-figure stalls. So, don’t let the draw cloud your judgement.

The four-year-old son of Pathfork is my pick for this year. The partnership of Royal Victory and Muzi Yeni has been unstoppable, winning both the Premier’s Champions Challenge and the Summer Cup at Turffontein. His last run at Greyville was over 1900m in October 2023, where he beat Pirate Prince. At 14/1, I believe the Nathan Kotzen-trained gelding will clinch victory from pole position.

Winning the last two legs of the Triple Crown means Purple Pitcher is a serious contender for this year’s Durban July. For me, this is the dark horse and definitely undervalued at 20/1. The son of New Predator has no stamina issues and will handle the 2200m trip, having won Grade 1 races over 1800m and 2450m. If he can dictate the pace and settle into his run, like Wylie Hall did in 2014, we might be in for a surprise. Include him in all your exotic bets.

See It Again will be looking to improve on last year’s second-place finish. The four-year-old son of Twice Over was unlucky last season, finishing second in both the July and Champions Cup. This year, the 60kg might be a deciding factor. The Michael Roberts-trained colt is undoubtedly the class of the pack and can win despite the top weight. He should be included in all bets.

Last year’s winner, Winchester Mansion, finished a close second behind Royal Victory in the Champions Challenge Grade 1 at Turffontein. The son of Trippi will carry 56.5kg as he aims to emulate Do It Again, who won consecutive Julys in 2018 and 2019. The weight gap to See It Again is the same as last season, making this an interesting race.

Other potential contenders include Flag Man, Double Superlative, and Oriental Charm.